The lethal combination shaking the Indian Himalayas: from geological reality to climate bomb

Lucia Goñi

New Delhi, Aug 7 (EFE) - A village in the Indian Himalayas witnessed a mountain fall on them this week. A flash flood, with a wall of mud and debris nearly 20 meters high, descended the Harsil Valley, leaving several dead and dozens missing, symptom of a combination that has turned this part of the "roof of the world" into a climate bomb.

In recent decades, the mountain range that supplies fresh water to a quarter of the world's population has been caught in a dangerous synergy between its fragile geographic location , an accelerating climate crisis, and the unbridled development of the superpower that inhabits it.

The Himalayan disaster history is not recent, but scientific studies warn of increasingly shorter timescales.

In 2013, monsoon rains triggered the region's worst recent tragedy , with more than 5,700 deaths, and in 2021, a glacier collapse triggered another avalanche that left more than 200 dead. This week's disaster in the state of Uttarakhand appears to be a continuation of a pattern.

A young mountain range that trembles beneath our feet

The Himalayas are the youngest mountain range on the planet. Geologically active, their mountains continue to grow due to the collision between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. This results in steep slopes, unstable soils, and high seismic activity. This instability is the foundation upon which buildings, worship, and life are built in the region.

"Young mountains, seismic activity, steep slopes, fragile geology, abundant rainfall, monsoon climate, glaciers... all of this is part of the Himalayan reality. This fragile geology requires extensive studies to identify and closely monitor vulnerable areas," Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, told EFE.

This reality, the expert insists, must be understood as the first component of the bomb. Climate change is the trigger.

Leading scientific authorities, such as the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), identify the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, often called the 'Third Pole', as one of the areas most at risk, as it is home to the largest reserves of ice outside the polar regions , which is warming at a faster rate than the global average.

Even if climate targets are met, the mountain range will lose at least a third of its glaciers by the end of the century, threatening the water supply of nearly two billion people.

The climate trigger and uncontrolled development

According to a report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Himalayas have lost 40% of their ice cover in recent decades and could lose up to two-thirds by the end of the century.

Massive melting of ice is feeding unstable high-altitude glacial lakes. In Uttarakhand alone, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has identified 13 of these lakes as high-risk.

Its sudden rupture , known as a GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst), causes catastrophic flooding. This occurred in Chamoli in 2021 and is the leading hypothesis for this week's disaster , after the Indian Meteorological Department ruled out a "cloud burst" due to a lack of rain.

"Glaciers are melting, glacial lakes are forming, and they're fragile. When they collapse, they can create massive flooding downstream in a very short time," Thakkar explains.

Adding to this powder keg, the third factor is human development, which acts as a risk amplifier. In recent decades, India has promoted accelerated infrastructure expansion: hydroelectric dams, tunnels, and roads.

The Indian Himalayas are also a spiritual epicenter, attracting millions of pilgrims to the Char Dham circuit.

Thakkar complains that there are no effective mechanisms to prevent hotels and other settlements from encroaching on natural waterways. Rather than adapting to the terrain, this expansion "occupies and conditions it," putting millions of people at risk.

"That, combined with the increased rainfall, means the rivers need more space, not less, which is what we're trying to give them," he adds.

Beyond climate: Is it possible to prevent collapse?

For Thakkar, "it's not enough to blame climate change." Authorities, he points out, have been aware of the risk for years, but have failed to take commensurate measures. Knowing that disasters will become more frequent, "the least we should do is prepare for them."

Among the priorities, the expert mentions early warning systems that integrate meteorological and glaciological data, independent environmental impact studies, and, above all, "accountability mechanisms" that allow learning from each disaster and accountability.

"Every tragedy," he concludes, "is a failure of the system, not just an act of nature." EFE

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