Adaptation to global warming increasingly well funded, but significant needs remain

Is France investing enough to calmly prepare for an increasingly overheated world ? Experts from the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) have identified all government spending on the thorny issue of adapting to the climate crisis, that is, protecting populations from the consequences of global warming ( heatwaves , floods, fires, etc.).

Good news, underline the authors of the report entitled "Adapting France to +4°C, means, needs, financing" published this Friday, September 12, "since 2020, we have observed an increase in the resources dedicated to adaptation in all areas of public action concerned by climate change." While the amounts remain limited for certain areas, the researchers have not identified "any obvious blind spots."

According to their calculations, €1.7 billion has been directly invested in adaptation by 2025 by the State, public operators and public service companies. This money was mainly distributed in credits allocated to water agency programs (around €939 million), the Green Fund , which supports local authorities, and the Barnier Fund , dedicated to the prevention of natural risks, (€714 million) or even the France 2030 calls for projects (€24 million).

As all relevant public policies and investment programs increasingly integrate the notion of climate change, the authors also identify several tens of billions of euros contributing to the country's adaptation without being part of budgets dedicated to this mission, such as the energy renovation of buildings and transport infrastructure, risk prevention policy, or resources dedicated to fighting fires.

However, "if the 2020-2024 period was indeed one of real attention to the issue, the more recent period casts significant uncertainties over what comes next," write the I4CE experts, pointing to the drop in budgets allocated specifically to the issue of adaptation, such as the Green Fund and certain France 2030 schemes, or more broadly that of credits for State missions concerned with climate change.

2025 marks "the end of the positive dynamic," with some envelopes already experiencing "significant reductions," particularly in forestry and agriculture, they specify. "There is no time to lose, the work we are publishing today shows that while public resources for adaptation have seen a significant increase in the recent period, the year 2025 shows the first warning signals with no prospect of improvement in the short term," analyzes Guillaume Dolques , co-author of the report and researcher at I4CE.

After two years of waiting, the government presented its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC-3) in March , designed to prepare transport, energy infrastructure, and agriculture for a 4°C rise in France by the end of the century. But "the funding known at this stage for PNACC-3 is insufficient compared to the estimated needs," criticize the experts at I4CE, along the same lines as those at the High Council for Climate (HCC). In July, after a year of accumulating environmental setbacks and delays, the HCC had already firmly urged the government to "relaunch climate action."

Beyond analyzing public policy financing, I4CE researchers highlight the need for policymakers to make choices now for the future, while offering them avenues for reflection. Should we strengthen existing infrastructure or rather transform certain sectors to make them more resilient to future shocks?

"In the immediate future, the budget issue should occupy the new executive ," points out Guillaume Dolques. "We will have to be careful to ensure that the essential needs in the light of climate change are integrated. But also to ensure that all the budgets which, without saying so, contribute to our adaptive capacity are preserved: being able to count on renovated buildings, properly maintained infrastructure or a robust health system are the fundamentals of our resilience."