Bad weather in the Var: why these episodes are difficult to anticipate

Three dead , towns devastated by a storm... Violent storms hit the Var department on Tuesday, which was on orange alert. In some places, the equivalent of four months of rain fell in just a few hours.

Contacted by RMC , MétéoFrance stated that the orange alert was justified in light of the cumulative rainfall recorded. Several meteorologists also believe that the orange alert was logical, particularly because the intensity of the rain was unpredictable.

"If we put it in red, we'll shut down the entire department, we'll close schools everywhere. Given the models we had, it was logical not to put 300 municipalities in red even though the risks were minimal according to the models we had," explains one of them.

As soon as the alert was announced Monday evening, the prefecture published security measures and called for vigilance on its social media. It also placed all Var town halls on alert.

Things accelerated Tuesday morning. The storm moved closer, and much more specific and alarming messages were sent shortly before 7 a.m. to the communities that were about to be hit.

Crisis response units were then activated. In Le Lavandou, for example, 2,500 residents received an alert message on their phones at 8 a.m. warning them not to move. The police and technical services were mobilized, particularly to secure the areas around waterways. Municipal emergency plans were also activated.

The severity of the bad weather was difficult to predict, according to hydrologist Emma Haziza, who spoke on RMC of a "flash flood." "We have a cold air mass, which is arriving at altitude, with an extremely humid, warm air mass coming from the Mediterranean. There is a confrontation between these hot and cold air masses. All of this means that torrential storm cells, which normally spread very quickly, are locally blocked in a small area," Emma Haziza explained on Apolline Matin .

"At 10 km, the weather is nice. The storm cell is about 20 to 30 km wide," explains the specialist. This very local nature makes anticipation even more difficult. Emma Haziza recommends "conducting ongoing prevention actions with all municipalities" so that they know how to react extremely quickly.