Environment. Greenhouse gases: the rate of decline in emissions is slowing in France.
According to initial forecasts from Citepa, the body mandated to compile France's carbon footprint, published this Friday, greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 0.8% in 2025. This rate is insufficient to achieve the objective of a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030.
The road transport sector still represents too large a source of greenhouse gas emissions. Illustrative photo: Sipa/Romain Doucelin
Will France achieve its goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030? Not so sure, according to the latest estimates from Citepa, the organization mandated to compile France's carbon footprint, published this Friday.
For the year 2025, the dynamics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are slowing, with an expected decrease of 0.8%, indicates the organization's forecast barometer*. This is significantly less than in 2022 (-3.9%), 2023 (-6.8%) and 2024 (-1.8%) and far from the objective set out in the draft National Low-Carbon Strategy 3 of a reduction of 5% per year between 2022 and 2030.
As a sign of this slowdown, emissions remained stable in the first quarter of 2025 compared to those in the first quarter of 2024. Over the year as a whole, France is expected to release 366.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, compared to 369.2 in 2024. The High Council for Climate called on Thursday for a "collective leap forward" and is now calling for "doubling [the country's decarbonization rate] to reach the target set for 2030."
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In 2025, the slight decrease in emissions is expected to be driven by manufacturing and construction (-2.4%), agriculture and forestry (-1.3%), and the energy industry (-0.9%). However, insufficient efforts are being made in the highly polluting transport sector (one-third of emissions) and residential/commercial buildings (16% of emissions in 2024), both of which are expected to stagnate in 2025.
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Despite a notable decline in the first quarter (-2.5%), Citepa predicts an increase in transport-related emissions for the final nine months. This is due to "dynamics that do not match the ambitions for road transport." Transport is expected to emit, as it did last year, 124.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas emissions in 2025.
French consumption also weighs heavily in the balance. In the first quarter of 2025, emissions in the buildings and residential/tertiary activities sector increased by 5.2%. This is mainly due to a cooler winter than in 2024, which led to greater use of heating. The anticipated decline in household gas consumption in other quarters, however, should limit the impact of this increase, and allow emissions in this sector to stagnate over the full year. Unless the heatwave of the last few days —and the increased use of air conditioning —weaken the results.
These forecasts, however, remain "fairly high levels of uncertainty," warns Citepa. There are therefore several months left to reverse the trend.
* The Citepa forecast barometer uses macroeconomic indicator forecasts estimated by INSEE and includes France in the “EU perimeter”, which means that only the overseas territories included in the EU are taken into account.
Le Progres
