America's Oil Production Could Collapse: Largest Importer Turns Away
China halted purchases of U.S. crude oil in March 2025 amid rising trade tensions with the United States, casting a shadow over demand for oil extracted from U.S. shale formations.
Oil imports: China suspends imports of nearly 150,000 barrels per day from the USThe lack of such purchases by the world's largest buyer of crude oil is all the more noticeable when compared to February 2025, when China imported 149,000 barrels of American crude oil per day.
As Bloomberg notes, China has bought U.S. crude oil every month since March 2020, except for August 2024, when the country cut its overall purchases due to faltering economic growth.
China’s fading demand for U.S. crude is bad news for shale producers there, who warn that U.S. production will fall amid a prolonged period of low oil prices caused by faltering demand and increased production from OPEC+.
American drillers pumped a record 13.2 million barrels a day last year, making the country the world's largest oil producer.
US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of up to 145% on most goods from China on April 10, 2025. Beijing responded with tariffs of 125%, slowing trade between the world's two largest economies.
Oil imports: China limits purchases of raw material due to lower demandThe issue is not unique to the United States. China is already buying less oil from the world due to economic uncertainty and weaker demand for fuel as drivers switch to electric vehicles and trucks powered by liquefied natural gas.
The country, which imported a record 481,000 barrels of U.S. crude a day in 2020, halved its purchases last year.
Overall demand for U.S. crude fell in March as refiners carried out planned maintenance ahead of a summer surge in fuel demand. Exports fell to 4.04 million barrels per day in March, down 5.9% from the previous month.
Oil imports: OPEC+ announces production increaseOPEC+ producers agreed on Saturday to increase crude oil supplies in June for the second month in a row, this time by 411,000 barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia, the leader in OPEC+, has warned group members who are currently overproducing beyond their limits that failure to comply with the group's rules could result in further increases in OPEC+ oil supplies.
The Saudis are seeking to dominate global oil markets, even if it means a price war . Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has a plan for that, although he may face a tough opponent: a global trade war and the resulting drop in demand for oil.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sharply lowered its 2025 U.S. crude oil price forecast from $70.68 per barrel to $63.88 per barrel for 2025, citing global trade policies and higher OPEC+ production.
According to the EIA forecast, global oil consumption will increase by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025, which is 0.4 million less than in the previous forecast.
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