Following the Baghdad-Erbil agreement, eyes again turned to the Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline.
Within the scope of the new oil agreement reached between the Iraqi central government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (IKBY), it was decided that all oil produced in Erbil would be delivered to Iraq's state oil company, SOMO.
- Published July 19, 2025, 3:05 PM
A new agreement on oil exports between the Iraqi central government and the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has strengthened expectations that the long-closed Iraq-Turkey pipeline will be reactivated.
In a written statement made by the Iraqi Prime Ministry Press Office, it was reported that the Council of Ministers, which convened on July 17, approved the new oil agreement reached with the KRG.
Under the agreement, the KRG government will deliver all oil revenues produced in the region to SOMO, Iraq's State Oil Company. For each barrel delivered, the regional government will receive an advance payment of $16.
The statement stated that the KRG must deliver at least 230,000 barrels of oil per day to Baghdad, and that additional amounts would be transferred to SOMO depending on increased production. It also stated that if oil exports cease, all oil would be transferred to the Iraqi Ministry of Oil.
On February 2, the Iraqi Parliament approved a regulation subsidizing production costs for international oil companies operating in the KRG, setting the transportation cost at $16 per barrel. This step was considered a critical threshold for the resumption of exports to Türkiye.
With the latest agreement, significant progress has been made in the process of resuming the oil flow that was cut off on March 25, 2023.
'The necessary groundwork for the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline can be established'
Sercan Çalışkan, an Iraq Studies Researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies (ORSAM), told an Anadolu Agency (AA) reporter that the KRG's commitment to deliver 230,000 barrels of oil per day to the federal government indicates a common will is beginning to take shape between the parties. He added, "Beyond the technical aspects of the agreement, the easing of ongoing tensions on the Baghdad-Erbil line could lay the groundwork for the relaunch of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, which enables oil exports through Turkey."
Çalışkan also stated that the implementation of the agreement, especially before the elections planned for November 2025, is a notable step in terms of domestic political stability in Iraq.
Recalling the significant challenges facing the process and the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks on the oil fields in northern Iraq, Çalışkan continued:
The recent increase in drone attacks, particularly in areas belonging to the KRG, has once again exposed the region's security vulnerabilities and risks to energy infrastructure. Therefore, not only the pipeline's political but also its security-related problems must be addressed, and potential security risks that could spread along the pipeline's route must be eliminated. The expansion of existing drone attacks into the pipeline's regions could pose one of the greatest obstacles to its sustainable operation. Therefore, as political negotiations continue, it is crucial to consider both the security risks posed by regional crises and the risks posed to the pipeline's route by security issues that may arise within Iraq.
Çalışkan also emphasized the need to closely monitor the foreign policy dynamics surrounding the reopening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, saying, "It is known that the US has long been pressuring the Iraqi central government to reopen the pipeline. It is also known that figures like Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, particularly within the US President Donald Trump administration, have frequently raised their sensitivities on this issue during diplomatic contacts with Baghdad."
The agreement could accelerate export negotiations.
In this context, Çalışkan emphasized that the recent agreement reached between Baghdad and the KRG could provide the technical and political foundation for the resumption of oil exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. He stated, "This detente created by the agreement could accelerate negotiations between the parties to reactivate the pipeline. Furthermore, the supportive stance of influential external actors like the US could facilitate Baghdad's steps toward reopening the pipeline."
Çalışkan noted that with the 2025 elections in Iraq just around the corner, the issue of re-commissioning the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline could emerge as a critical negotiation topic between the central government and the KRG during the election process, concluding his remarks as follows:
Therefore, every step taken will play a decisive role not only in terms of energy policies but also in terms of political equations and alliances before the elections. However, it should not be forgotten that the positive outcome achieved by the latest agreement, which has normalized the stalled negotiations between the two sides, could also re-establish the negotiating table for the opening of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline before the elections.
AA
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