Denmark to finalize agreement on 2040 climate target in mid-September

Denmark will attempt to reach an agreement between EU member states on the 2040 climate target at an extraordinary meeting in Brussels on September 18.

This was announced by the Danish Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities, Lars Aagaard, during a press conference in Copenhagen on Wednesday, which focused on the priorities for Denmark’s EU presidency.

“The goal is to have an agreement in place by September 18. I hope that all member states are clear in their statements, but also pragmatic,” says Lars Aagaard.

The Danish EU Presidency has thus set a tough deadline. August is traditionally a summer vacation month in the EU system.

However, the first steps will already be taken at an informal ministerial meeting in Aalborg next week, says Aagaard.

He also bases his optimism on the fact that the European Commission has taken the member states’ concerns into account in its proposal for a 2040 target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to 1990.

To get the countries on board with the target, the Commission proposes allowing climate credits of up to 3% from 2036. Flexibility in terms of which sectors are to contribute will also help the EU countries to achieve the ambitious targets.

“Europe must be the most ambitious region on climate, but we must not lose our competitiveness. The EU Commission’s proposal also includes protection for industry, so I believe an agreement is possible,” says Aagaard.

Interlinked climate targets

However, the Danish EU Presidency is under considerable pressure. In September, the EU must also submit a 2035 climate target to the UN.

According to Lars Aagaard, this must be based on the 2040 target, which is to be adopted on September 18.

In other words, if no agreement is reached on the 2040 target, Denmark and the EU could face major problems in setting a 2035 climate target.

This would be considered a disaster for the EU’s credibility on climate issues.

The target will help put pressure on countries such as China and the US to do more for the climate at COP30 later this year.

Denmark may also face challenges from the rules on how the EU is to vote on the two climate targets.

The 2040 climate target must be adopted by a qualified majority. This makes it possible to achieve the target even if some EU countries say no.

However, if the 2040 target is rejected at the meeting on September 18, it will be difficult to meet the September deadline for the 2035 target, which must be reported to the UN.

2035 target requires unanimity

The rules for voting on the 2035 target could also cause problems for the Danish EU Presidency. This is because unanimity among all 27 EU countries is required to adopt the 2035 target.

Thus, if some countries feel they have been steamrolled, for example if Denmark secures a qualified majority agreement on the 2040 target, they can “take revenge” by refusing to vote for the 2035 target.

But Lars Aagaard is prepared to put heavy pressure on countries that block the UN target:

“If some countries want to block an ambitious target, they must come forward and explain themselves. It would be tragic for Europe if we cannot stand united and face the rest of the world. It is a huge responsibility to take on if some countries choose to do so,” says Lars Aagaard.