Why better monitoring of US transformers is a national security imperative

The United States’ electric grid is entering a period of unprecedented stress. Aging infrastructure, rising energy demand and global supply-chain constraints are converging to create a dangerous vulnerability: a critical shortage of functioning power transformers. These silent workhorses of the grid, numbering between 60 and 80 million nationwide, are increasingly at risk of failure. And when they do fail, replacing them can take years, not months.

Lead times for new transformer deliveries now stretch from 80 to 210 weeks, according to an April 2024 report by Wood Mackenzie. This is a staggering increase in wait times, driven by raw material shortages, manufacturing bottlenecks and now tariffs. That means a single failed transformer today could leave entire communities in the dark for months. In the wake of natural disasters or targeted attacks, the consequences could be catastrophic.

Transformers aren’t just aging — many are operating well beyond their intended lifespan. Over one-third of U.S. units are more than 40 years old, and many are serving load profiles they were never designed for. The rise of electric vehicles, grid-scale batteries, renewable generation and energy-hungry data centers is creating dynamic, high-stress operating conditions that strain these aging assets to the breaking point.

Add to that the growing threat of sabotage and climate disasters:

• In December 2022, coordinated gunfire attacks on two substations in North Carolina left 45,000 people without power for days;
• In early 2025, a man was convicted for plotting attacks on Baltimore-area substations, a plan that could have caused massive regional disruption; and,
• In September 2024, Hurricane Helene damaged transformers at 360 substations across North Carolina, leading to over 4 million outages, some lasting weeks.

These events underscore a stark reality: losing even a small number of transformers can trigger cascading blackouts and we no longer have the spare capacity or supply chains to quickly recover.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has warned that coordinated attacks on just nine critical substations could cause a nationwide blackout lasting weeks or even months. In that context, transformer reliability is no longer a back-office maintenance issue — it’s a frontline national security concern.

Traditional monitoring techniques like periodic Dissolved Gas Analysis, infrared scanning and Sweep Frequency Response Analysis are helpful but fundamentally reactive. They often identify issues only after damage has occurred.

To keep up with today’s risks, utilities need continuous, predictive and non-invasive monitoring. Advanced AI-powered systems, equipped with smart sensors and cloud-based diagnostics, can detect subtle signs of electrical, thermal or mechanical degradation months before traditional methods would catch them.

These tools don’t just improve reliability, they buy time, extend asset life and provide early warnings that can prevent catastrophic failures.

Next-generation transformer monitoring tools use external sensors to continuously analyze micro-vibrations and temperature fluctuations, and produce a detailed internal health signature of each transformer while the unit is operating, like a real-time EKG.

These advanced tools quickly identify hidden faults and early signs of common transformer problems, such as arcing, insulation breakdown and winding degradation to help operators maintain transformer health and avoid failure.

These early warnings enable proactive maintenance that prioritizes high-risk units, optimizes capital planning and reduces the frequency and cost of unplanned outages and emergency repairs.

Using advanced technologies to improve transformer monitoring and maintenance helps strengthen grid reliability in the face of extreme weather events and attack scenarios, while extending the useful life of each transformer, maximizing cost savings.

Maintaining the health of aging transformers contributes to a more resilient and secure electric grid, a mission-critical goal for national defense and emergency preparedness.

Transformer reliability is no longer just an operational issue for utilities — it’s a national imperative. As the U.S. grid continues to modernize, and as global risks intensify, power market participants must equip themselves with technologies that prevent failures before they happen.