1.5°C target: Are we moving away or closer?

Ana Tuñas Matilla

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is essential for the future of life on Earth, and achieving this requires drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, while the UN believes we are approaching the goal, the report, which measures the gap between this limit and the production of fossil fuels, the main emitters, warns otherwise.

In 2015, the signatories of the Paris Agreement (known as the agreement reached at the UN Climate Summit held that year in the French capital) pledged to act to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C and strive to limit it to 1.5°C.

The UN's panel of climate experts ( IPCC ) subsequently called for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5 degrees Fahrenheit) this century relative to pre-industrial levels to avoid irreparable consequences, such as the disappearance of islands or coastal areas beneath the sea.

For science, achieving this requires abandoning fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) , which are considered the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide and methane, which are causing climate change that would not have occurred without human activity.

The planned production of fuels, incompatible with the 1.5

However, government plans to produce fossil fuels through 2030 are 120% higher (more than double) than the level required to limit global warming to 1.5°C , according to the latest edition of the Production Gap Report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Regarding the 2°C limit, they are 77% above, so, according to the authors, if implemented, these plans will move us "even further" away from the Paris Agreement , despite countries submitting new climate commitments in their national contributions to comply with it, according to the report, which is prepared every two years.

In the 2023 assessment, the fossil fuel production gap was 110% under the 1.5°C scenario and 69% under the 2°C scenario.

That is, the gap has widened despite the fact that at the Dubai climate summit (2023), the parties agreed to advance the energy transition by increasing renewables and energy efficiency and, for the first time, opened the door to ending the era of fossil fuels.

In contrast, the 2025 report concludes that governments are now planning even higher levels of coal production through 2035 and gas production through 2050, while projected oil production continues to rise through 2050.

Stiell: The world is aligning with the Paris Agreement

For his part, the UN's top climate change official, Simon Stiell, said during his speech at Climate Week in New York that "if we put aside the noise, the facts show a world aligning with the Paris Agreement."

In this regard, he emphasized that investment in renewables has increased tenfold in ten years and that the transition to clean energy is underway in almost all major economies, with investments totaling $2 trillion last year alone.

However, this boom is occurring unevenly across countries, while climate disasters are increasingly hitting all economies and societies.

Therefore, the next step, he stressed, is to expand alignment with the Paris Agreement country by country, sector by sector, across all financial flows, using the upcoming Global Stocktake as a timeline to achieve this.

Using AI to speed up the pace

During his address to a predominantly business audience, Stiell highlighted the job and business creation opportunities presented by the ecological transition and advocated for leveraging artificial intelligence to accelerate the pace.

In this regard, he said that although AI is not ready for use and carries risks, it can also represent a revolutionary change if its most dangerous edges are "softened," its catalytic aspects are refined, and it is put to work "with cunning."

"What's most important is their ability to generate real results: managing microgrids, mapping climate risks, or guiding resilience planning," according to Stiell, who has called for AI platforms to be powered by renewable energy and innovate in energy efficiency.

The value of multilateralism

On the other hand, he has highlighted the importance of multilateralism and asserted that without UN climate cooperation (the most representative of which is the Climate Summit), we were heading towards 5 degrees of warming , an impossible future.

"Today we're closer to 3 degrees. It's still too high, but we're managing to flatten the curve. At the end of this year, we'll see how close the next round of national plans brings us to the 1.5-degree target," Stiell noted, less than two months before the Belém Climate Summit (COP30) in Brazil.

"We need to reaffirm our resolve and send a stronger and more unequivocal message: the world remains firmly in support of the Paris Agreement and is fully committed to climate cooperation, because it works, and together we will make it work faster. Not only at the COP, but here in New York, at the G20, at the Pre-COP, and in every forum... humanity cannot afford to stumble." EFEverde ATM