"How many more warnings do we need?": Just days before COP30, the world is heading towards a 2.5°C warming.

As world leaders meet in Brazil on November 6, a new UN report is once again sounding the alarm: countries' commitments are leading the world towards a warming of 2.5°C, far beyond what the Paris Agreement aims for .

Temperatures are expected to rise between 2.3°C and 2.5°C this century, according to calculations by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). And even then, this is only if countries' climate roadmaps are fully implemented, which is often not the case.

Ten years ago, the signing of the Paris Agreement committed States to limiting the increase in the global average temperature to "well below" 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and to try to contain it to 1.5°C, a limit which will almost certainly be exceeded in the coming years.

The world continues to burn ever-increasing amounts of oil, gas, and coal, leading to a sharp rise (+2.3%) in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 , according to the new report. "Ambition and action are nowhere near the levels needed globally and collectively," Anne Olhoff, the report's lead scientist, told Agence France-Presse.

Based solely on current policies, and therefore without taking into account commitments to do better, warming could reach 2.8°C (compared to 3.1°C last year), calculates the UN. Scientists emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming increases the intensity of cyclones and heat waves, and reduces the chances of coral reefs surviving. "We still need unprecedented reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, in an increasingly shorter timeframe, within a challenging geopolitical context," summarizes Inger Andersen, head of UN Environment.

“How many more warnings do we need?” Jasper Inventor exclaimed to franceinfo. “The time to act is now, but our leaders are asleep at the wheel, driving straight towards more devastating disasters like Hurricane Melissa, towards human suffering, economic losses and climate injustice,” warned the deputy director of programs at Greenpeace International .

While COP30, which will open on November 10 in Belém, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, will be a moment of truth , the preliminary negotiation session organized in Bonn last June does not bode well.