Texas Floods: Geography, Climate, Political Choices... How Can We Explain Such a High Death Toll?

This area of ​​Texas is nicknamed "Flash Flood Alley," explains Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Here, warm air from the Gulf rushes into the Balcones Escarpment—a series of steep hills and cliffs that extend southwest—cools, and delivers torrents of rain to the land.

"The water will rise very, very quickly, in a matter of minutes or hours," Sharif said, as happened on Friday, the U.S. Independence Day, when the Guadalupe River burst its banks after torrential rains in the central part of the state.

According to weather reports at around 3 a.m., the river level rose by 30 centimeters every five minutes. By 4:30 a.m., it had risen to more than six meters, enough to sweep away vehicles and buildings. An alert had been issued shortly after 1 a.m., a time when many people are asleep or turning off their phones.

The area is a popular holiday destination known for its mild climate, water sports, and resorts. But the scientist insists that given the growing risks, these places should not be considered safe or indestructible. He also urges authorities to use hydrological forecasts, tools that convert rainfall into probable river levels.

A study by ClimaMeter showed that the conditions leading up to the floods—more than twice the monthly average rainfall in a single day—could not be explained simply by nature but also by human impacts on the climate. A warmer atmosphere traps moisture, which promotes more violent downpours.

“Climate change is already affecting us, so we need to adapt,” said Mireia Ginesta, a scientist at the University of Oxford and co-author of the study funded by the European Union and the CNRS. “We need to reduce our emissions and ensure that weather services and climate change research in general receive the necessary funding,” she added.

Since Donald Trump took office, the National Weather Service (NWS), like other federal agencies, has been the target of budget cuts from the administration. Nevertheless, according to several experts, the weather service has performed flawlessly under these difficult conditions. The real problem, according to scientist Daniel Swain of the Bluesky network, "has not been poor weather forecasting, but poor dissemination of those forecasts and warnings."

For years, officials in Kerr County, where the affected summer camp was located, considered using sirens and digital alerts to prevent flooding.

But a 2016 meeting minutes still online describe feasibility studies as "a little outlandish," suggesting the sirens would primarily help tourists, instead favoring the informal word-of-mouth radio outreach already in place. According to a meeting transcript, local councilman HA Buster Baldwin even said, "The thought of our beautiful Kerr County having these damn sirens going off in the middle of the night, I'm going to have to start drinking again to cope with it."

A few years later, officials hesitated again. But residents, during public meetings, fiercely opposed the idea of ​​requesting federal funds linked to the administration of former Democratic President Joe Biden, whom they opposed politically.