The Powerful Role in Geopolitics is to Manage the Energy Transition

The world is becoming more volatile and unpredictable. The energy sector is no exception.

Tariffs, sanctions, conflicts and supply chain disruptions have affected global trade in energy, sparking increased protectionism in some nations, and causing commodity prices and energy inequality to rise. However, in every challenge there are risks but there are opportunities too. Global geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts have pushed us to reshape our understanding of energy security. Traditionally, energy security has been measured in fossil fuel supply. We at IRENA believe that this needs to be revised.

Energy security must also be understood through renewable capacity. Not only to supply diversification but also to enhance economic growth and the imperative of securing critical infrastructure against potential economic coercion.

Renewable energy, led by solar PV, wind power, and other technologies, are already advancing at an unprecedented pace, becoming central to the global energy system. The world added a record of 585 gigawatts of new renewable power capacity in 2024, the largest growth ever. And IRENA’s 1.5^°C scenario shows that by 2050, over 90% of global electricity must come from renewable sources, with clear divestments from fossil fuels.

As we move forward, we must recognise that geopolitics plays a powerful role.

We are navigating not just technological shifts but managing political and economic forces that will determine whether this transition is equitable, secure, and successful. Challenges include navigating the tension between national industrial strategies and established global trade frameworks, addressing the risks of technological decoupling, ensuring fair access to technologies for all nations, and managing the potential for clean energy dependencies to become new geopolitical leverage points.

Financing and collaboration will play a pivotal role. Challenges are compounded by uneven global deployment of installed renewables, insufficient financial flows, and looming supply challenges for energy transition technologies.

IRENA’s “Geopolitics of the energy transition: Energy security” report advises that policy makers should not merely transpose thinking from the fossil fuel era to a renewables-based system. IRENA has identified multiple issues that should be systematically considered to guide national decision making on resource endowments and comparative advantages. This is particularly crucial as governments make significant investments in infrastructure for systems that are increasingly electrified, digitalised and decentralised.

At the heart of this transition also lies the geopolitics of critical materials. The mining of essential minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths is highly concentrated in a handful of countries. This concentration exposes the global energy transition to significant vulnerabilities that can threaten energy security.

Significant geopolitical risks arise from the high concentration of processing and refining capabilities, alongside ensuring equitable access and resilient logistics for these essential inputs. These disruptions underscore the geopolitical risks that hinder progress on the clean energy transition. The competition for critical materials could escalate into trade wars, export restrictions, and market manipulation, making the transition not only slower but more costly as shown by IRENA’s “Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials” report.

On the other hand, IRENA’s analysis clearly shows there is no scarcity of reserves for critical materials. For example, the estimated global reserve for lithium is 560 million tonnes while the estimated annual demand of lithium in 2030 ranges between 1.7 to 2.3 million tonnes per year.

But as no country masters every aspect of clean technologies alone, so it is essential to consider the impact of domestic policies within a broader web of interdependence and manage the energy transition.

1. We need investment in exploration, particularly in underexplored regions such as Africa, where significant untapped reserves exist. This is where international collaboration becomes crucial to attract the investments to build resilient and diversified supply chains.
2. At the same time, we must foster innovation in clean technologies, particularly in battery production. Innovations that improve energy efficiency and enable material substitution will significantly reduce reliance on critical materials, thus lowering potential geopolitical conflict over resources.
3. Finally, we must focus on diversifying and strengthening supply chains. It is not just about securing materials; it is about ensuring that developing countries benefit from their own natural resources. Transparent markets will be crucial in ensuring that energy security is universally accessible.

IRENA’s 2025 Geopolitics Work Programme prioritises these issues. Our work on the geopolitics has been elevated as a priority and reflects our continued focus on the evolving geopolitical dynamics affecting the energy sector.

A Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation was convened in 2018 under the initiative of IRENA. The idea of focusing on the geopolitical implications of the global energy transformation driven by renewables was, at that time, visionary and produced a report that has been a source of great inspiration to understand the great transformation we are witnessing.

We believe it’s time to give a fresh look to the geopolitical implication of the global energy transition dominated by renewable energies. This is why we want to convene a Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transition, asking political and business leaders, academics and policy thinkers to consider how politics, energy, economics, trade, environment and development are, and will be, impacted by the impressive growth of renewable energy.

Ultimately, the solution lies in innovative governance models that prioritise inclusivity and sustainability.

To conclude, the energy transition presents both challenges and remarkable opportunities. Through international collaboration, innovative governance, and investments in exploration, recycling, and technology, we can ensure the benefits of the clean energy transition are shared globally.