Rapa Nui statues on Easter Island at risk of being submerged

A giant, the ocean, versus giants, the moai. The battle is already underway, and in just over fifty years, the verdict could be reached: according to new studies and forecasting models, the sea will win, compromising the traditions, culture, and tourism of an entire population. The giants of Rapa Nui are a UNESCO World Heritage Site and are now threatened by rising sea levels. The moai, the large statues up to 10 meters tall on Easter Island, 3,600 kilometers west of the Chilean coast, could be constantly threatened by ocean waves in the future. These statues are much more than a tourist attraction; they embody the identity of the local community.

By 2080

These iconic statues, of which there are an estimated over 800, still conceal many mysteries. Questions remain as to why they were facing inward, perhaps to pay homage to deceased indigenous tribal leaders, or how exactly they were transported and hoisted into the island's interior. Amidst so many uncertainties, however, one certainty is emerging: that by 2080 , according to a new study, some of Rapa Nui's most important statues will be impacted by rising sea levels, which, as we know, is linked to rising temperatures caused by anthropogenic emissions—essentially, the climate crisis.

Digital models of ocean rise

A research recently published in the Journal of Cultural Heritage and edited by experts at the University of Hawaii at Manoa estimates that by 2080, sea level rise could cause seasonal waves that will reach Ahu Tongariki.

The latter is the iconic ceremonial platform that is part of the Rapa Nui National Park and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site: here are the 15 most symbolic moai of the island and, for culture and tradition, the entire site is considered one of the most important, if not the most important, on Easter Island.

Coastal flooding, the researchers add, threatens a total of 51 cultural assets in the area. "This research reveals a critical threat to Rapa Nui's living culture and livelihoods," explained Noah Paoa , lead author of the study and a researcher in the Department of Earth Sciences at the UH M?noa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST).

Not just a tourist attraction

"For the community, these sites are essential for reaffirming their identity and supporting the revitalization of traditions. Economically, they represent the backbone of the island's tourism industry. Failure to address this threat could ultimately jeopardize the island's UNESCO World Heritage status," Paoa emphasized, explaining how the new information could be vital in the effort to adapt and protect Easter Island's cultural heritage.

Wider environmental challenges

To estimate the impact of rising sea levels, the same emergency that is now threatening many Pacific islands, researchers created a digital twin of the Ahu Tongariki site and, using computer models and international scenarios such as those outlined by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on sea level rise, simulated how the wave motion would impact the coast.

"Unfortunately, from a scientific perspective, the results are not surprising. We know that sea level rise poses a direct threat to coastlines globally. The crucial question was not whether the site would be affected, but how soon and how severely. Our work aimed to establish possible timeframes within which we could expect impacts to occur. Finding that waves could reach Ahu Tongariki by 2080 provides the specific and urgent data needed to foster discussion and community planning for the future," Paoa concludes.

Climate migrants from Tuvalu

The challenges facing Rapa Nui are very similar to those of several other coastal areas around the world, including, for example, the islands of Tuvalu, where today, thanks to a sort of climate passport , many inhabitants are migrating to Australia, but also the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Fiji, and Hawaii.

In the Pacific in particular, more than half the population lives within 500 meters of the coast: for many, the future is becoming a matter of choice: stay in high-risk areas or relocate to secure their livelihoods. The great giants of Rapa Nui, of course, will remain where they are: the risk, however, is that the waves will indirectly disrupt the lives of thousands of families, impacting the statues.

"For the entire community," the researchers conclude, "these sites are fundamental to their traditions and, from an economic standpoint, they are central to the island's tourism industry."