Coal is reaching new heights. Record after record.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a report on the coal market (The Coal Mid-Year Update 2025), including global coal consumption and production forecasts for 2025-2026.
• According to the IEA, although several trends that pushed global demand to a record high in 2024 changed in the first half of 2025, global coal demand is likely to remain stable, significantly exceeding 8 billion tonnes.
• Commenting on 2024, the IEA emphasizes that China remains the dominant player in global coal markets, consuming about 30 percent more coal than the rest of the world combined. The report points to an increase in coal consumption in the first half of 2025 in the US.
• The IEA reports that global coal production reached a record high of 9.15 billion tonnes in 2024 and estimates that it could reach a new record high in 2025, declining in 2026, but not below 9 billion tonnes.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a report on the coal market (The Coal Mid-Year Update 2025), including global coal consumption and production forecasts for 2025-2026.

The IEA estimates that global coal demand will likely remain broadly unchanged this year and next, despite short-term fluctuations in several major markets in the first half of 2025.

Global coal production is expected to rise to a new record in 2025 and decline slightly in 2026 as high inventories and lower prices begin to weigh on supply.

IEA: Global coal demand to reach a record high of 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024

According to the IEA report, global coal demand increased by 1.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching a new record of 8.8 billion tonnes.

This was the result, it explained, of rising consumption in China, India, Indonesia and other emerging economies more than offsetting declines in developed economies in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia.

The increase in coal consumption in 2024 is , as the IEA pointed out, a continuation of the upward trend in coal consumption, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years – in 2022, demand increased by 4.4% and in 2023 – 2.3%.

The IEA noted that in 2024, coal-fired power generation , the main driver of global coal demand, also reached a record level of production, estimated at 10,766 TWh.

Meanwhile, the consumption of coking coal, used mainly in iron and steel production, remained relatively stable, with a slight decline estimated for the year.

It should be added that China remains the dominant player in global coal markets , consuming about 30 percent more coal than the rest of the world combined.

It said China's energy sector alone accounts for one-third of global coal consumption, underscoring China's key role in shaping the trajectory of global coal demand.

IEA: Global coal demand changes will be negligible in 2025-2026

The IEA indicates that several trends from 2024 reversed in the first half of 2025, as coal demand in China and India fell due to weaker growth in electricity consumption and strong growth in renewable energy production.

In turn, according to the IEA, coal consumption increased by about 10 percent in the US in the first half of 2025, as increased electricity demand combined with higher natural gas prices resulted in an increase in coal use for energy production.

In the EU, as the IEA indicated in the first half of 2025, demand for coal remained broadly stable , with lower industrial consumption offsetting higher demand from the electricity generation sector.

Overall, the IEA reported that global coal demand saw a slight decline of less than 1% in the first half of 2025.

Meanwhile , the IEA forecasts a 0.2% increase in global coal consumption in 2025, with demand remaining stable compared to 2024.

This is expected to occur, according to estimates, with, among other things, a decline in coal demand in China by about 0.5%, an increase in coal demand in the US by 7% and a decline in the EU by about 1.6%.

According to the IEA, global coal demand will decline only slightly in 2026 , remaining at just under 8.8 billion tons. This is due in part to increased coal consumption in China and India, but also in Indonesia and Vietnam.

IEA: Global coal production could set a new record in 2025

The IEA reports that global coal production will reach a record high of 9.15 billion tonnes in 2024, driven mainly by high production in China, India and Indonesia.

It was emphasized that domestic coal is the largest source of energy in both China and India, which makes its production crucial to the energy security strategies of these countries.

China remained the world's largest coal producer in 2024, maintaining production at nearly 4.7 billion tonnes.

The IEA said that while Shanxi, the traditionally largest coal-producing province, cut production by 7% in 2024 due to safety restrictions, domestic volumes were maintained thanks to strong production growth in Inner Mongolia (up 90 million tonnes) and Xinjiang (up 78 million tonnes).

The IEA expects global coal production to increase slightly to 9.2 billion tonnes in 2025 , setting a new record.

The expected growth drivers are China and India, whose production increased by 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. It was noted that the same period in 2024 was characterized by a low base due to production cuts in Shanxi.

The IEA said the province is expected to regain its position as China's leading coal-producing region in 2025 and, as a result, production is expected to rise by 3% in China in 2025, reaching 4.8 billion tonnes.

The IEA comments that the overall increase, however, masks signs of falling demand , which has led to rising stock levels in several regions and persistently low international coal prices.

The IEA also reported, among other things, that coal production in India is expected to increase by 3% to 1.11 billion tonnes in 2025, while in Indonesia production is expected to decline by 10% to 755 million tonnes.

According to the IEA, European coal producers , including Poland, will see production declines in 2025. The IEA reported, among other things, that although lignite production in Germany increased slightly in the first half of 2025, it is expected to decline by 3% in 2025 as a whole, as more renewable sources come online in the second half of 2025.

IEA: Coal production will fall in 2026, but will remain at over 9 billion tonnes

In the report mentioned at the beginning, the IEA predicts that in the current situation – with large stocks, low prices and expectations of a gradual decline in demand for coal until 2026 – global coal production will fall by 1.4% in 2026 to 9.1 billion tonnes.

However, as noted, despite the projected decline, coal production will remain above the 9 billion tonne threshold. This, one might say, underscores coal's continuing importance in the global energy mix.

The IEA, going into detail, said that China's coal production is expected to fall by 1% to 4.76 billion tonnes in 2026, while India's production will continue to grow by 3% to 1.15 billion tonnes, and the US is forecast to see a 9% decline to 434 million tonnes.

The IEA also assessed, among other things, that the situation in Russia is precarious because it is suffering serious losses due to Western sanctions and low prices, despite government support.

She also said she predicts that the decline in coal production in the European Union will continue, with production falling by 13 percent to 209 million tons, with the largest declines in Germany and Poland.

According to the report, Mongolia's coal production is expected to increase by 3% to 102 million tons in 2026, while the IEA said Kazakhstan's production is projected to remain close to 110 million tons. South Africa, on the other hand, is expected to see a 3% increase to 247 million tons, and Colombia's production is expected to decline even further, reaching 59 million tons.