The Middle East and Asia Will Be the Engines of Growth in Natural Gas Demand

According to data from the International Gas Union's (IGU) "Global Natural Gas 2025" report, growth reached an all-time high of 1.9 percent, driven by rising demand in Asia, North America, Russia, and the Middle East. Within this framework, global natural gas demand in 2024 is set at 4.122 trillion cubic meters.

It is estimated that global natural gas demand will reach 4 trillion 193 billion cubic meters this year, with a growth of 1.7 percent, corresponding to 71 billion cubic meters compared to last year, and that the housing, industry and electricity generation sectors will be the main factors in the increase in demand.

Growth is projected to be slower than last year in 2025, with the Middle East leading the way with 28 billion cubic meters. Asia will follow with 16 billion cubic meters and North America with 10 billion cubic meters.

The largest increase in production is expected to occur in North America.

Global natural gas production rose by 65 billion cubic meters last year to 4.090 trillion cubic meters by 2023 due to the increase in the Middle East and the recovery in Russia.

In the United States, one of the world's largest natural gas producers, production remained steady despite low prices due to high storage levels and mild winters.

Natural gas production is expected to rise by approximately 2.1 percent this year, with an increase of 87 billion cubic meters, to 4 trillion 177 billion cubic meters.

North America is expected to see the largest increase in production, at 40.1 billion cubic meters. This will be followed by the Middle East with 21.3 billion cubic meters, Africa with 13 billion cubic meters, Asia with 10.1 billion cubic meters, South America with 3.9 billion cubic meters, and Oceania with 1.6 billion cubic meters.

On the other hand, production is estimated to decrease by 3.4 billion cubic meters in Europe and 300 million cubic meters in Oceania.

The Middle East will be the clear leader in consumption growth.

The largest increase in natural gas consumption is expected to be seen in the Middle East, with 28.2 billion cubic meters.

The Middle East is expected to be followed by Asia with 15.9 billion cubic meters, North America with 10.4 billion cubic meters, Africa with 5.7 billion cubic meters, Europe with 5.2 billion cubic meters, South America with 3.9 billion cubic meters, and Russia with 1.7 billion cubic meters.

LNG's share in global natural gas trade will increase

In the first half of the year, the share of LNG in global natural gas trade increased by 2.2 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching 340 billion cubic meters.

The increase in Russian gas prices was due to the cessation of shipments via Ukraine on January 1st and the subsequent increase in imports due to the decrease in European storage capacity.

While LNG imports increased by 23.5 percent in Europe in the first six months, imports in Asia decreased by 8.8 percent due to mild winter weather conditions, sufficient storage capacity in major markets such as China and Japan, and high LNG prices.

LNG trade, which accounted for 51 percent of last year's natural gas trade and stood out at 555 billion cubic meters, is projected to account for 54 percent of global natural gas trade in 2025 and maintain its leadership position against pipeline gas, which it has held since 2022.

Global natural gas consumption was estimated to be 3 trillion 926 billion cubic meters in 2019, 3 trillion 859 billion cubic meters in 2020, 4 trillion 69 billion cubic meters in 2021 and 3 trillion 992 billion cubic meters in 2022, and 4 trillion 51 billion cubic meters in 2023.

Reporter: Gazete Enerji