Interactive tool shows 15-year forecast for EU gas supply and demand

Berlin-based pan-European think tank, Strategic Perspectives launched an interactive tool providing data and analysis of the EU’s gas supply and demand ahead of the European Commission’s release of the REPowerEU Roadmap for ending Russian fossil fuel imports.

The report named EU Gas Insight, based on publicly available databases, bilateral gas deals, LNG long-term contracted volumes and potential LNG spot purchases, provides a supply foreaceast and an overview of four demand scenarios.

In 2024, 23 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG were sold on the spot market, however, purchases are forecasted to decline to zero starting from 2025, while long-term contracts will show a fluctuating pattern: from 89 bcm in 2024 to 82 bcm in 2025, 88 bcm in 2030, and 48 bcm in 2040.

Although Russian pipeline imports have increased from 27 bcm in 2023 to 33 bcm in 2024, they are expected to decrease to 18 bcm in 2025, then to 7 bcm in 2026, before disappearing entirely by 2027.

Norwegian pipeline imports will shrink from 82 bcm in 2025 to 77 bcm by 2030, and to just 28 bcm by 2040.

Algerian and Libyan pipeline imports are expected to stay at 48 bcm from 2026, increasing from this year’s 42 bcm.

Azerbaijani pipeline imports will rise from 13 bcm in 2025 to 20 bcm by 2028, and remain at that level thereafter.

EU domestic production is forecasted to be 30 bcm in 2025, decreasing to 24 bcm in 2030, and just 14 bcm by 2040.

The most climate-optimistic scenario, Strategic Perspectives’ Visionary Scenario aligns with a 90 per cent reduction in emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels in the EU. In this case, the projected gas supply is set to exceed the demand by 54 per cent by 2030 and 221 per cent by 2040.

In the European Commission REPowerEU & 2040 targets scenario, the projected gas supply is set to exceed demand by 43 per cent by 2030 and 42 per cent by 2040.

In the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario, the projected gas supply is set to exceed demand by 2035. This scenario assumes long-term climate targets are met and includes all recent major national announcements as of the end of August 2023, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

In the International Energy Agency Stated Policies Scenario (IEA STEPS), if the EU climate policies are not implemented, the bloc will need more gas. This gap can be covered by the LNG spot market purchases, but this exposes the EU to the global market price volatility. As a result, the EU will remain heavily reliant on gas imports, compromising its energy and economic security.