Unpacking wildfire risk: A new imperative for every utility executive

For many electric utility executives, especially those outside the Western U.S., the escalating threat of wildfires, especially asset-caused wildfires, can seem removed from their daily lives. Historically, catastrophic power line fires were infrequent. A wire falling on healthy vegetation posed little threat, and even in dry conditions, severe impacts were rare. However, the conditions on the ground have shifted rapidly, and it's time for every electric utility leader to confront this evolving reality with clear eyes.

Predicting Today's Changing Conditions and Tomorrow’s Risks

The traditional playbook for assessing wildfire risk is no longer sufficient. Most electric utilities still rely on static risk assessments: snapshots in time based on historical data that become outdated the moment they're completed. But wildfire risk changes hour by hour with weather conditions, fuel moisture, and equipment status. A circuit rated 'low risk' in the morning can become catastrophically dangerous by afternoon. We have seen this level of change play out in recent years.

What was once considered an anomalous event in wildfire, like a catastrophe so large that an electric utility faces damages exceeding their insurance coverage, has become a disturbing trend. Since 2017, catastrophic power line fires have occurred annually, and not just in California. Such catastrophic asset-caused events are spreading unexpectedly to places like Colorado with the 2021 Marshall Fire; Hawaii with the tragic 2023 Lahaina Fire; Texas with the 2024 Smokehouse Creek Fire, and even in Oklahoma, Pacific Northwest, and the East Coast. The recent Eaton Fire in a bone dry January in Los Angeles, and the forest fires in the Carolinas in March are a stark reminder: the threat is now universal and changing constantly.

Several converging factors fuel this intensified risk. Persistent drought and a drier climate is a major driver, transforming previously benign landscapes into pending tinderboxes. Dry conditions now persist in areas where vegetation was historically seasonally wet, meaning a downed power line that once posed no threat can now spark a conflagration anytime. Adding to this, the relentless expansion of communities into the wildland-urban interface puts more homes and lives in direct harm's way when asset-caused ignitions occur. Our landscapes are changing as well. An unprecedented buildup of dry, flammable vegetation, creates conditions ripe for explosive and uncontrollable blazes. The recipe for catastrophic outcomes is now widely present, even where it never was before.

For electric utilities, this isn't just an environmental concern; it's a fundamental business challenge. The consequence of that “1-100 year event” is stronger and more frequent than before. Even "one bad day" – a single ignition event – can be devastating, leading to massive financial liabilities, lawsuits, credit rating downgrades, and skyrocketing or unobtainable insurance premiums. This impacts the entire electric utility industry's ability to operate efficiently, secure capital, and ultimately, serve its customers efficiently, reliably, and safely.

Gaining Proactive Understanding and Evolving Operations

Facing this elevated and widespread risk requires a proactive and dynamic approach. Electric utilities can no longer rely on static risk assessments from years past, assuming low historical risk means no future threat. The environment, asset infrastructure, and community landscapes are constantly in flux.

For electric utilities embarking on this journey of understanding, three initial considerations are crucial:

1. Move from Static to Dynamic Risk Assessment: Replace annual or seasonal risk evaluations with systems that integrate real-time weather data, current fuel conditions, and equipment status. This means understanding not just that winds might reach 40 mph, but what those specific winds mean for ignition risk in your current conditions.
2. Implement Real-Time Weather Intelligence: Granular, minute-by-minute automated weather monitoring becomes your operational backbone. The difference between knowing "high winds expected" and knowing, "50 mph gusts forecast for Circuit 47 at 2 PM with 8% fuel moisture", is the difference between broad shutoffs and a surgical response.
3. Build Continuous Condition Monitoring: Track changing fuel moisture and environmental factors in real-time. This allows you to adjust risk levels dynamically rather than operating on assumptions from last season's assessment. The path to a more resilient future requires electric utilities everywhere to look at wildfire risk with new eyes. By acknowledging the evolving nature of this threat and taking proactive steps to understand and manage it, electric utilities can protect their communities, improve their financial stability, and ensure they serve their customers efficiently, reliably, and safely.

Electric utilities that will thrive in this new reality are those that embrace dynamic, real-time risk assessment. Static reports gathering dust on shelves won't prevent the next catastrophic fire, but systems that adapt to changing conditions in real-time can. The question isn't whether your region will face wildfire risk, but whether you'll see it coming in time to act.

Gain more understanding from Technosylva’s webinar with Utility Dive on why electric utilities everywhere need to modernize their wildfire risk assessment and see how that achievable effort is put into practice.