A global glut of LNG will lead to a price collapse, and the US may be forced to cut its exports.

An LNG glut and expected price declines in 2026–2030 could force the United States to redirect liquefied natural gas to the domestic market. LSEG estimates that global LNG production capacity will increase by 60% by the end of the decade, from 550 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 890 billion cubic meters in 2030. US plants are expected to account for half of this global growth. Already in 2026, the excess supply in the LNG sector will reach almost 50 billion cubic meters in 2026 and reach 200 billion cubic meters in 2030. This will lead to lower global gas prices, especially in Asia and Europe. Since gas production costs in the United States are higher than in Qatar, the world's second-largest producer, the United States may be forced to reduce exports, giving up some market share. American plants will have to seek new markets within the United States. The US domestic market has significant growth potential. According to the IEA, US gas demand could increase by an additional 100 billion cubic meters by 2035 due to the development of data centers and AI systems. Previously, the US Department of Energy calculated forecast balances based on the growth of renewable energy capacity. However, the new administration of US President Donald Trump has begun to massively suspend the construction of renewable energy generation facilities. Wood Mackenzie has reduced its estimates for solar power capacity in the US by 35% by 2025-2030 compared to forecasts made a year ago (to 246 GW). Wind power capacity growth will be almost a quarter lower than previous estimates. Between 2025 and 2034, wind capacity in the US is expected to increase by 72 GW, which is 22 GW less than the previous forecast.

This will lead to higher electricity and gas prices domestically, as well as a potential reduction in exports. If data center demand continues to soar, soaring gas prices could become a problem as early as the 2026 US midterm elections or the 2028 presidential election, Reuters reports.