Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia – 2050: Reliability, Technology, Leadership

Russia occupies a unique place in the global economy and energy system, being simultaneously a major producer, consumer and exporter of energy resources. Our country is among the world leaders in hydrocarbon reserves, volumes of production and export of energy resources, in the development, use and export of nuclear energy technologies. And the task of the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation, updated on the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, is to preserve and increase these achievements.

The Energy Strategy until 2050 is a key document defining the main principles of Russia's long-term energy policy, including further reliable provision of domestic energy needs and effective implementation of export potential. The strategy is balanced with national development goals, closely linked to the country's fundamental tasks, and takes into account global trends and internal challenges of the sector's industries.

Global energy has been undergoing a period of profound transformation in recent years. The structure of the energy balance is changing, new partnerships and logistics chains are being built. At the same time, the growth of the global economy and the planet's population require the availability of affordable energy resources.

Over the past 11 years, energy demand has grown by about 14%. In the next 20 years, primary energy consumption growth could exceed 20%. According to the balanced scenario, global energy demand will reach 25 billion tce by 2050, which is 23% more than by the end of 2023.

At the same time, changes will affect the structure of demand. We see a significant increase in the role of the BRICS countries in the global economy and global GDP, while the growth of the economies of European countries and the G7 countries is slowing down. This trend is projected onto energy consumption. Thus, the main consumers of energy of the future will be the countries of the Global South and East.

The share of renewable energy sources in the global energy balance in the balanced scenario will increase from 2.5% in 2023 to 10% in 2050, but despite this, these sources will not be able to fully satisfy the world's energy needs.

In the overall structure of the global energy balance by 2050, oil and gas will continue to dominate, with shares of 33.2 and 26%, respectively (in 2023, 36.9 and 26.1%, respectively). Compared to 2023, oil demand by 2050 will grow by 12% (from 102 million bpd to 114 million bpd), and gas demand by 24% (from 4.1 trillion ^m3 to 5.1 trillion ^m3 ).

The growth dynamics of global gas demand will be second only to the rate of development of renewable energy. LNG will play a significant role in global gas trade due to flexible logistics. In 2050, the total capacity of LNG plants declared for construction may approach 1 billion tons, i.e. increase more than twice, and, consequently, competition in the global LNG market will increase.

The main increase in oil supplies after 2030 will come from OPEC+ countries, which include Russia. And the main driver of oil consumption growth will be India, where demand, according to OPEC, will grow from 5.3 million bpd in 2023 to 13.3 million bpd in 2050. China, other countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa will also be the leaders in consumption. The largest drop in oil demand is expected in European countries - oil demand in the region will decrease from 13.4 to 9.2 million bpd. At the same time, we can say that the peak demand for gas and oil has not yet been passed. Perhaps this moment will come beyond the horizon of 2050.

The demand for coal will gradually decrease. However, this resource will still be in demand, mainly in Asian and African countries. In addition, Western countries are also reviewing their approaches to the coal industry. For example, the US has announced the revival of the coal industry, introducing a moratorium on the closure of coal mines and allocating state funding for credit programs for the development and implementation of new coal technologies. It is expected that metallurgical grades of coal will be the most in demand in the world, and the peak consumption of this resource may shift to the 2030s or even later.

Nuclear energy has received a new impetus for development. While a few years ago we observed a trend towards closing nuclear power plants in a number of countries, today nuclear energy is globally recognized as low-carbon and significant in achieving climate agenda goals. Its share in primary energy consumption by mid-century will be 2.8% (1.5% in 2023), while the share of nuclear power plants in electricity production will reach 16.4% (9.2% in 2023).

The introduction of digital technologies and artificial intelligence has a significant impact on global energy. Global electricity consumption by data centers is more than 400 TWh (more than 1% of global electricity consumption), and their consumption may increase 2-4 times in the next decade.

The share of electric transport is also increasing. And these are not only electric cars, whose share in the global car fleet is about 2-3%, and by 2050 it may exceed a third of the global car fleet. Railways and water transport are also being electrified. Energy storage systems are developing, which is changing the global economic structure.

Russia's energy strategy takes into account current trends in the fuel and energy sector, global needs for energy sources, and is aimed at a stable supply of energy resources to the domestic market and the country's leadership in the international energy arena. We will maintain reliance on traditional fuel and energy sectors, while simultaneously increasing the share of nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources, developing hydrogen and carbon-intensive technologies. That is, we will adhere to a balanced approach.

These objectives will be achieved through the rational use of all types of energy resources, efficient development of the resource base, modernization of energy sectors, achievement of technological sovereignty, development of transport and logistics infrastructure, and training of highly qualified production personnel for each sector.

Currently, Russia is among the top 3 oil producing and exporting countries, occupying a share of about 10% of the world market.

The oil industry fully meets the domestic market demand for high-quality motor fuels, oils, kerosene, bitumen and large-tonnage petrochemical products. Russia traditionally plays an authoritative role in the global oil market, which allows our country, in partnership with OPEC+ countries, to effectively balance the global oil market and make a significant contribution to the budget: thanks to the OPEC+ deal, Russia has received more than 40 trillion rubles in additional revenues over 8 years.

At the same time, growing global demand and replenishment of the natural decline in production in the world in the future will be largely satisfied by OPEC+ countries, which, according to the organization’s analysts, will lead to an increase in the market share of OPEC+ countries from 49 to 52% by 2050 (taking into account oil and other liquid hydrocarbons).

Domestic demand will also continue to grow for motor fuels due to the growth of the vehicle fleet, domestic tourism, and air travel, as well as for large-tonnage petrochemicals due to light industries, trade, and the construction industry.

In the coming years, we plan to return to the level of production of 540 million tons of oil per year. This figure will be maintained until 2050. This will require timely replenishment of the resource base, primarily by involving a larger volume of hard-to-recover reserves and introducing more advanced technologies.

Today, the share of hard-to-recover, watered and depleted reserves is about 60%. To stimulate their development, it is necessary to fine-tune the fiscal system, which will make investments in new categories of reserves and technologies profitable. This, in turn, will lead to a jump in investment and strengthen the role of the oil industry as the locomotive of domestic industry and science. The development of oil production will also play an important socio-economic role, contributing to the development of strategically important regions, including the Arctic, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East.

Improvement of mechanisms for stimulating geological exploration and subsoil use will continue, including in terms of creating testing grounds for new technologies. This will allow more than 5 billion tons of new reserves to be involved in development and ensure 100% replenishment of the mineral resource base, and develop strategically important regions such as the Arctic, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East.

To increase competitiveness, comprehensive work is underway to develop the industry technologically. Coordination of efforts between oil and gas companies and the state has already allowed us to significantly increase the level of import substitution. By 2027, we expect almost complete import substitution in the oil industry, and in the future, Russia intends to take a significant place in the new niche of exporting technological services and goods.

The development of infrastructure to increase the economic efficiency of oil supplies will allow Russia to become No. 1 in the Asian oil market by 2050 and fully meet the needs of the industry with a fleet. It is also planned to develop a system of main pipelines, port and railway infrastructure, including increasing the throughput capacity of the Eastern Polygon.

The key task of the oil refining industry is to complete the refinery modernization program, which will allow the introduction of 48 new units at refineries and achieve a light oil product yield of 72% by 2036.

In the petrochemical industry, it is planned to double the capacity for the production of large-tonnage polymers by 2036, while increasing the share of light hydrocarbon raw materials (ethane, LPG, naphtha) used in petrochemicals to 45% by 2036.

The development of exchange instruments that help balance the raw materials market will also continue.

The Russian gas industry has a powerful resource potential. Our country ranks first in the world in natural gas reserves and second in production (16% of the world total), has a developed infrastructure and a significant technological reserve. In recent years, the resource base has been significantly expanded, new gas pipelines have been launched, and a promising LNG industry has been formed.

Key tasks include meeting domestic demand for gas, i.e. the needs of citizens, industry and transport. By 2036, domestic gas consumption in the target scenario will grow by 93 billion ^m3 (+19% compared to the 2023 level), by 2050 – by 35% compared to the 2023 level, to 669 billion ^m3 .

This will be facilitated, in particular, by the further gasification of the country’s regions, which is continuing on the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, and includes additional gasification and economically efficient gasification of the regions of Siberia, the Far East and the Arctic.

In order to develop the processing sector, where the active development of its own gas chemistry technologies is underway, it is proposed to allocate a resource base for gas chemistry projects. By 2050, it is planned to create about 10 new gas chemistry plants. The growth in demand from gas chemistry projects will amount to about 20 billion m ³ .

We expect that the growth of gas consumption will be facilitated by the expansion of the use of gas motor fuel (GMT). In order to popularize gas fuel, we will continue to expand the necessary infrastructure and maintain economic and administrative incentives for consumers to switch to alternative modes of transport. The share of transport on GMT by 2050 will reach more than 10%, and the number of infrastructure facilities for GMT will be more than 3 thousand units throughout the country.

To achieve these objectives, it is necessary to further develop the huge gas resource base, the reserves of which reach 63.4 trillion ^m3 , and maintain the level of production in regions with developed infrastructure. This requires tax incentives for new investments in the production of hard-to-recover reserves, the development of a program to stimulate geological exploration, and the localization of production in high-tech drilling. This will allow more than 5 trillion ^m3 of undeveloped reserves to be involved in development with a production level of more than 50 billion ^m3 , including from the category of hard-to-recover reserves, in the Arctic and on the shelf. As a result, gas production in the country will reach about 1 trillion ^m3 by 2050.

In order to realize the logistics and export potential, the development of the trunk infrastructure will continue. First of all, we are talking about the construction of the export route "Power of Siberia 2", the connection of "Power of Siberia 1" with "Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok", as well as a single gas supply system with trunk lines in the east of the country, accelerating supplies along the Far Eastern route.

The plans include developing our own technologies for seamless pipes and large-diameter pipes, as well as cooperation with friendly countries for the joint development of gas infrastructure and the conclusion of long-term contracts, the formation of swap supplies by partners. This will increase pipeline gas exports to 197 billion ^m3 by 2036, maintain production volumes and federal budget revenues. By 2050, Russia will become the No. 1 exporter to the gas markets of Asia.

LNG remains a strategic direction for the development of the gas industry. Our task is to maintain the role of a leading supplier, increase LNG production to 100 million tons in the medium term and enter the top 3 suppliers in the LNG market. The achievement of this goal will be facilitated by the development of our own LNG service and technologies, expansion of the fleet of gas carriers and the creation of specialized hubs for the transshipment, storage and trade of LNG. Advanced mechanical engineering in the petrochemical and LNG industries will ensure not only import substitution, but also the export of technologies in these areas.

The coal industry of Russia remains the backbone for a number of regions and for the economy of the country as a whole. Our country produces all types of coal – power-generating, coking, brown, anthracite – which are aimed at satisfying the needs of citizens, the needs of power generation, industry and metallurgy, as well as for export deliveries.

Russia has a large coal resource base and has all the opportunities for efficient extraction of reserves and their use for stable satisfaction of domestic needs and development of export supplies. Our country has reserves for more than 500 years, and production capacities already allow increasing production. Development of new coal mining centers will provide an additional 250 million tons of production capacity on the horizon up to 2050. The priority is environmentally friendly and safe development of reserves.

By 2050, the industry will be a complex of high-tech modern enterprises with high environmental standards. The installed capacity of coal generation in Siberia and the Far East will reach approximately 38 GW. It is also planned to introduce "clean coal" technologies and innovative coal mining technologies, create a wide range of products from coal and its enrichment waste, and develop coal chemistry.

The level of coal consumption in the domestic market will amount to 230 million tons/year by 2050, and the share of open-pit coal production will increase to 75% of the total production volume, which will have a positive effect on increasing the safety level. Particular attention will be paid to the process of integrating new entities into the Russian coal industry.

Export will remain one of the key drivers of coal industry development. The determining factors for the success of Russian coal on the world market have always been high quality, low cost, proximity to major markets, extensive reserves and stable investment in production compared to other suppliers. In order to increase coal exports to the growing markets of the Asia-Pacific region, we will continue to develop infrastructure. For this purpose, it is planned to create new coal mining centers near sales markets, expand the carrying capacity of the Eastern Polygon railway, build the Pacific Railway, approaches to the ports of the South and North-West, increase the capacity of the NSR in terms of coal transportation, develop port infrastructure and optimize transport logistics using long-term tariff formation mechanisms. Competitiveness will also be ensured by further improving the quality characteristics of Russian coal.

The country's electric power complex is not only one of the largest in the world, but also one of the most reliable. And the share of low-carbon energy sources in generation already reaches 87%.

Electricity consumption is expected to grow by 42% by 2050 – from 1139 billion kWh (2023) to 1624 billion kWh. This will happen primarily due to the implementation of large infrastructure projects in the manufacturing and mining industries, transport, as well as the development of new sectors of the economy, including artificial intelligence, data centers, and mining.

The accelerated increase in electricity consumption requires the further development of the energy system, therefore, the key task is to move from the economy of demand, that is, to satisfy the demand for electricity for the current needs of the economy, to the economy of the proposal, which implies long -term planning in the needs of the economy and the leading provision of technological accessibility for new consumers in this work should be systemic measures to involve system measures to involve system measures to involve the investment of investment investments in the industry of investment investments in the industry of investment investments in the industry of investments in the industry of investment investments in the industry of investment in the industry industry. and increasing efficiency with a minimum financial burden on the consumer.

These goals are met by the approved General Scheme of the Electricity Electricity Objects until 2042. The document forms the rational structure of the generating capacities until 2042, taking into account the improvement of the system of regulation of electric power and the mechanisms of returning investments, which will ensure the possibility of expanding and creating new electric power facilities. , as well as based on minimization of energy production costs.

For stable operations of the industry, it is necessary to cover the demand of the GTU of domestic production in 2025. The production of up to 8 units of GTE-170/GTE-65 and up to 2 units of GTD-110M in the period 2027-2029. 2 GTE-65, it is planned to commission about 45 GW of new and modernized generating capacities, mainly with the use of gas turbines of domestic production. No 90%.

Another task is to improve the reliability of the heat supply systems for this, stimulating the investment development of heat supply, as well as regulatory regulations for increasing regulatory requirements and reliability of consumer heat supply, is also proposed the quality and reliability of heat supply consumers.

Taking into account the world trend for the development of renewables, the improvement of the regulation of renewable energy will continue, the systems of national standards in the field of renewal, taking into account the best world practices, are also planned to develop “green” certification of the sources of electric energy and electrical energy accumulation systems.

In addition, in connection with the development of low -carbon energy, which includes renewal power plants and the system of accumulation of electric energy, the demand for mineral raw materials, which is demanded in energy - lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, rare -earth metals, aluminum, and copper, which creates new opportunities for the realization of the resource potential of Russia.

As a result of the long -term measures of the development of the energy complex by 2050, the installed power of power plants will reach 330 GW (+78 GW by 2023), 26 GW of the new hydroelectric power stations, GAES, VES and SES (+50% by 2023) and 50 GW of new thermal power plants will be introduced. Generations in the structure of electricity production will increase to 25%.

Energy will become an important tool for the goals of sustainable development and climate agenda There is the development of sectors of hydrogen energy, capture, use and burial CO ₂ .

Particular attention will be paid to 40%of the TEC enterprises have been introduced by artificial intelligence.

We will strengthen international cooperation with friendly countries, which will contribute to the realization of the export potential of the fuel and energy complex.

Thus, the energy strategy of the Russian Federation until 2050 will determine the main vectors of the development of the domestic fuel and energy complex for decades in advance.