IEA points to slowdown in oil demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) made striking predictions for 2025 in its July Oil Market Report. According to the report, excluding the pandemic year of 2020, global oil demand growth this year will fall to its lowest level since 2009. The IEA expects daily oil demand to increase by only 700,000 barrels by the end of 2025, reaching a total of 103,682,000 barrels.

Below-Expected Increase in the Second Quarter

One of the most significant reasons for this slowdown is the halving of demand growth in the second quarter compared to the first. Oil consumption increased in the first quarter, particularly in OECD countries, due to cold weather conditions. However, in the following months, demand stagnated significantly, particularly in developing countries.

Trade tensions and regional differences

The report also addresses the impact of global economic volatility and trade tariffs on demand. While consumption has declined in countries like the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, non-European emerging economies have shown more resilience.

2026 PROJECTION: LIMITED INCREASE IN DEMAND WILL CONTINUE

The IEA's 2026 forecasts also support this limited upward trend. Accordingly, global oil demand is projected to increase by only 720,000 barrels in 2026, reaching 104.4 million barrels.

A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN SUPPLY IN JUNE

According to the report, global oil supply increased by 950,000 barrels per day in June compared to the previous month, reaching 105.62 million barrels per day. The majority of this increase came from OPEC+ countries. Saudi Arabia was notable for its 700,000 barrels per day production increase in June. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the United Arab Emirates were also among the countries that increased production. However, Iran saw a 400,000 barrel decrease, and Venezuela experienced a more limited production decrease.

PRODUCTION INCREASE IN OPEC AND NON-OPEC COUNTRIES

In June, OPEC crude oil production increased by 420,000 barrels per day to 28,260,000 barrels per day. Production in non-OPEC countries increased by 530,000 barrels per day to 71,730,000 barrels per day. The increase in non-OPEC+ countries was offset by increases in Canada and biofuel production, while partial declines were recorded in Colombia and the United States.

ANNUAL PRODUCTION INCREASE OF 2.9 MILLION BARRELS

As of June 2025, global oil production increased by 2.9 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year. 1.9 million barrels of this increase was directly contributed by OPEC+ countries.

Source: Headline News – News Center