Brazil expands production and heads towards record grain harvest

Expectations are 339.6 million tons, with emphasis on soybeans, corn, rice, and cotton; climate and public policies boost performance in the field

The 2024/2025 Brazilian grain harvest is expected to reach 339.6 million tons, according to projections from the National Supply Company (Conab). The volume represents a 14.2% increase compared to the previous cycle. The data is included in the 10th Harvest Survey, released on Thursday (10), in Brasília (DF).

The estimate takes into account a combination of favorable weather, expanded planted area, increased technological investment, and public policy incentives. The total cultivated area in the country is expected to reach 81.8 million hectares—a 2.3% increase compared to the previous cycle. Although excessive rainfall has hampered the planting of winter crops in the south of the country, such as wheat and oats, Conab estimates that other crops are progressing satisfactorily.

Soybean production is expected to reach a new record, with an estimated 169.5 million tons—a 14.7% increase over the previous harvest. Total corn production, considering all three harvests, is projected at 132 million tons, representing a 14.3% increase.

In the case of cotton, production is expected to reach 3.9 million tons of lint, an increase of 6.4%. This growth is primarily attributed to the 7.2% expansion in planted area.

Rice production is expected to reach 12.3 million tons, a 16.5% increase compared to the previous cycle. The recovery is due to an increase in the planted area and favorable weather conditions, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producing state. The crop harvest has already been completed.

Bean production is estimated at 3.15 million tons, down 1.3% from the previous crop. Despite the decline, the first harvest saw a 12.8% increase, a performance considered positive by Conab.

Among the factors influencing production growth, the company highlights the recent increase in the mandatory biodiesel blend requirement for diesel, which is driving domestic demand for soybeans destined for crushing. Additional processing of approximately 935,000 tons of the oilseed is expected, which should increase soybean oil production to 11.37 million tons and soybean meal production to 43.78 million tons. As a result, domestic consumption and stocks of these products are also expected to grow. For soybean grains, exports are expected to remain virtually stable, with a forecast of 106.22 million tons.

In corn, the increased supply will be partially offset by domestic demand, which remains high, mainly due to the expansion of ethanol production. Conab estimates that 90 million tons will be destined for domestic consumption. Conversely, exports are expected to decline slightly, given increased global competition. The result will be a significant increase in final stocks.

As for rice, the recovery of domestic production, combined with the expected decline in domestic prices, tends to favor the resumption of exports. Imports remain stable, and final stocks are expected to expand.