Report: Global energy transition accelerates, targets not enough

DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2025 report reveals that fossil fuels will decline rapidly and the share of renewable energy sources will increase. However, the report states that the current pace of transition is not sufficient to keep global temperature rise below 2°C; it projects that the temperature increase could reach 2.2°C by 2100.

According to the DNV report, global electricity demand will exceed current levels by 120 percent by 2060, meeting approximately 43 percent of total energy demand. Meanwhile, the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation will decline from 59 percent to 4 percent. This signals a fundamental transformation in the energy sector.

Solar and wind power will account for more than a third of global primary energy supply by 2060. This increase will replace fossil fuels, but the pace of transition will still lag behind global targets, according to the report.

The report predicts that electricity demand from AI-enabled data centers will increase tenfold by 2030. However, this increase will only account for a 3 percent share of global electricity consumption by 2040.

Carbon capture and storage capacity is expected to quadruple by 2030. CCS technology can play a critical role in reducing fossil fuel use and stands out as an important tool supporting the energy transition.

Energy security measures can reduce emissions in energy-importing countries while increasing them in energy-exporting countries. For example, in China and India, as domestic energy production increases, emissions also rise.

Turkey continues to work to increase its renewable energy capacity. However, the share of fossil fuels remains high, and the pace of energy transition lags behind global targets. Experts emphasize that Türkiye must develop faster and more effective policies to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2060.

Other key findings in the report include:

• AI is emerging as a significant energy consumer, but it will consume only 3 percent of global electricity in 2040. Data center energy use will increase fivefold by 2040, equivalent to 5 percent of global electricity. Of this, 3 percent will be for AI and 2 percent for general-purpose data centers.
• There are large regional differences; in North America (USA and Canada), the share in 2040 will be 16 percent of all electricity, with AI accounting for 12 percent of that share.
• Global CO2 emissions will decrease by 43 percent between now and 2050 and are expected to reach net zero after 2090. The carbon budget for 1.5°C runs out in 2029, and the budget for 2°C runs out in 2052. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C without temporary overheating is no longer possible.
• Electricity is growing rapidly and becoming greener. Global electricity production is expected to increase from 21 percent of total energy demand today to 43 percent by 2060, a 120 percent increase, and reach the target of 50 million electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2025.
• Global solar PV capacity is expected to exceed 3,000 GW this year, with China having installed twice as much capacity as Europe.
• The falling costs of solar panels and batteries have made behind-the-meter (BTM) solutions attractive to many households and businesses. BTM will represent 30 percent of all solar energy produced and 13 percent of total energy by 2060.

The DNV report reveals that the global energy transition is accelerating, but it's not enough. Governments, industry, and society will need to take bolder and more decisive action. Otherwise, achieving climate goals will be impossible.